Specularum/Mirros

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Specularum/Mirros

Post by AllanP » Sun Jun 29, 2008 9:48 pm

Hi -

I'm currently "researching" the Karameikan capital with the possibility of fleshing out the city map. Before I launch into it, I'm looking back through the various Mystara products to see what has been detailed about the city in the past.

One aspect has me slightly puzzeled - the docks around Mirror Bay. In GAZ (and in Karameikos: Kingdomof Adventure boxed set IIRC), there's a description of the Trader's Corridor are outside the city walls just north on the riverbank.

The GAZ1 description reads:
This strip of land, right on the shore, is not protected by the city's old tide wall. It is where the major shipping and shipbuilding businesses are located; there are also several fishmarkets along this strip of territory. In general, this area has numerous piers, wharehouses, and merchant-related businesses; overseas passage is booked here; international messages are passed through here; cargo from all over the world is received here, and reciprocal cargo is sent out from here.

What I'm puzzled by is what are the docks and piers within Mirror Bay used for? Tghere are the Naval docks and Naval Shipbuilders in the northern corner of the enclosed harbour, and then there are several piers and docks along the bay's western and southern shores (and one - presumably non-naval area on the northern side of the bay).

Any thoughts on what the Mirror Bay docks are used for if the majority of shipping trade takes place in Traders Corridor?
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Re: Specularum/Mirros

Post by JamesMishler » Sun Jun 29, 2008 11:23 pm

I would read that as meaning that the Trader's Corridor merchants are dealing with duty-free trade, buying and selling goods from elsewhere to sell elsewhere; if they actually want to sell something in Karameikos they go to the docks in Mirror Bay and pay the taxes and duties, and if they want to export something from Karameikos they have to go to the merchants in Mirror Bay.

For example, if a merchant from Thyatis wants to sell Thyatian silk to a trader who will turn around and sell it to someone sailing west and himself buy Shireton Ale for the cargo east, he'd go to the Trader's Corridor. If he wants to sell Thaytian silk to the local Thyatians for gold and then buy Traladaran salt pork, he'd go to the merchants in Mirror Bay (where he'd have to deal with duties and tariffs). If he were caught selling the silk in Trader's Corridor to locals for sale locally, bypassing taxes and duties, he'd be tried as a smuggler...

I'd surmise the reason it is outside the bay is that before the arrival of the Thyatians there was not much trade that came through Traladara; merchants merely bypassed it, save when they wanted to trade directly with Traladarans. As Specularum has been safe now for almost a century, international trade built up; as the Thyatians did not trust non-Thyatians in the bay (especially competing foreigners), they set up the Trader's Corridor for their trade. When Duke Stefan came on the scene, he reorganized it to set up the Corridor as the Duty Free Zone, opening Mirror Bay for local trade.

Also, back during the Thyatian era, Mirror Bay was the westernmost port for the Empire, so the Military probably took up the entire bay area!

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Re: Specularum/Mirros

Post by AllanP » Mon Jun 30, 2008 9:25 am

James -Thanks for the feedback.

If I understand you correctly then, if Trader A sells Thyatian silk to Trader B in Traders Corridor, Trader B can only sell to Trader C who is sailing out of Traders Corridor. If Trader B tries to take the silk into Specularum/Mirros, he's going to be caught at the gate and forced to pay extra taxes/face imprisonment there... But could Trader B take the silks eleswhere in Karameikos and sell them?

One thought I had about the docks on Mirror Bay was that they were the domain of the major Guilds/Clans, e.g. Radu, Torenescu and others who enjoyed greater security, etc in the main harbour.


I think I'll have to dig out my copy of the Darokin Gazetteer and refresh myself on Merchants and Tade in Mystara.

Again, many thanks for your comments.
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Re: Specularum/Mirros

Post by bighara » Mon Jun 30, 2008 11:41 am

Another possibility is that the inner piers are simply more expensive to dock at. I don't think a sovereign nation would let you trade at their docks without taking a cut (legally, that is ;) ), regardless of the cargo's final destination. Perhaps if all you are doing is refitting/resupplying without off-loading or taking in any cargo, then one uses the trader docks?

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Re: Specularum/Mirros

Post by AllanP » Mon Jun 30, 2008 12:24 pm

Bighara - thanks for your thoughts on this.

I guess the problem I have is the phrase in the GAZ1 (and K:KoA box set) of the Traders' Corridor which says it is "...where the major shipping and shipbuilding businesses are located (my emphasis on"major"). I guess I can't quite see why anyone would use the Mirror Bay docks if the Traders' Corridor is the apparent centre of shipping activity.

If only Bruce Heard was here, I'm sure he'd have an explanation ;)
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Re: Specularum/Mirros

Post by maddog » Mon Jun 30, 2008 12:39 pm

Another possibility is that maybe larger/taller ships dock at Traders' Corridor. There appears to be a gate across the entrance of Mirror Bay. How to tall masted ships enter and exit from the bay? Perhaps only ships with shorter masts and removable masts (galleys) can enter and exit without issues. :)

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Re: Specularum/Mirros

Post by AllanP » Mon Jun 30, 2008 12:46 pm

Hi madog -

Yes, you're right about the double set of sea gates that act as defenses across the entrance to Mirror Bay.

Of course, this would also affect the Karameikan Navy whose base is in Mirror Bay.

So now we need to know how high the Mirror Bay sea gates are and what's the size of typical Mystaran trade vessels. Anyone got a reference for that?
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Re: Specularum/Mirros

Post by waylander39 » Mon Jun 30, 2008 1:43 pm

Well I've got no idea about the actual size of the gates but you could estimate it from common vessels that would be common in that area. I would say that common trading vessels would be cogs or coasters, small trading vessels that would fit in with the area/milieu. According to sources I've looked at a typical coaster had a keel length of 65 feet and a cog had a keel of 85 feet. Beam length was about 20 feet and both types of ship had two masts. I would estimate the mast height at approx 40 feet and that plus the ship itself would give you a total height from the waterline of approx 60-70 feet. Galleys and galleons would be less common but are much bigger with a typical keel length of 130 feet, beam length between 20 and 30 feet and they would typically have 3 masts. If you estimate the masts on the galleons and galleys at about 60-70 feet and the heights of the ships at about 30 feet from the waterline then you're looking at 100 feet in total. As such the gates would have to be between 70 and 110 feet in height if there was a fixture across the top of them. Alternatively the gates could be open at the top with towers at either side to defend the harbour. These are just my suggestions and are only rough estimates, others may come up with something more accurate.

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Re: Specularum/Mirros

Post by AllanP » Mon Jun 30, 2008 5:35 pm

Thanks waylander69for your thoughts and ideas.

I think there's a brief passage about the Mirror Bay sea gates in the K:KoA box set - I will dig that out. Looking at the more detailed map of the Mirror Bay area on the GAZ1 inside cover, there dioes look to be a walkway crossing between each set of towers on either side oif each sea gate. It's not clear how the gates work - do they open inward or outward like doors? (probably not), do they come down from the crossway? or do they come up from the harbour bed? (so many questions! :)

And as I'm thinking about things, when I commented earlier about digging out my copy of the Darokin Gazetteer, perhaps I should really have thought about GAZ9 The Minrothad Guilds Gazetteer, whicjh IIRC deals with sea trade (as opposed to overland trade in Darokin - GAZ11). I think they might even mention ship sizes in GAZ9...

Again thanks for contrinbuting yourideas on the subject.
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Re: Specularum/Mirros

Post by JoeNotCharles » Mon Jun 30, 2008 5:43 pm

Perhaps the civilian area of the docks was built for traders, but has fallen into disuse because they took their business to Trader's Row instead. This would be a major failure of city policy (tariffs set too high or some other policy that makes the city docks unattractive combined with not being willing to send the army out to break up Trader's Row for some reason). That could mean the non-military docks in the city are becoming rundown due to lack of use and upkeep - could be a major problem if pirate attacks or war makes Trader's Row suddenly more dangerous. All those merchants suddenly saying, "Wait, maybe the security of trading inside the bay IS worth paying for!" would have to fight for a place at the docks.

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Re: Specularum/Mirros

Post by Jakob_Pawlowicz » Mon Jun 30, 2008 7:52 pm

Could it be that the Traders Corridor is the stopping place for the trafic (river barges) coming down river from Kelvin ect. while the Mirror Bay is build for Overseas trade ?
That the two harbor areas having been built for different kinds of ships/bargers :?: :roll:
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Re: Specularum/Mirros

Post by Hugin » Mon Jun 30, 2008 8:57 pm

Jakob_Pawlowicz wrote:Could it be that the Traders Corridor is the stopping place for the trafic (river barges) coming down river from Kelvin ect. while the Mirror Bay is build for Overseas trade ?
That the two harbor areas having been built for different kinds of ships/bargers :?: :roll:
That's a very good point; Mirror Bay is a 'deep harbour' while Traders Corridor has considerably more shallow water along the river and near islands. The docks south of the sea gates would more likely be of deeper water and perhaps are used more for restocking, repairs, crew changes, and other mainly non-trading activities.

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Re: Specularum/Mirros

Post by AllanP » Tue Jul 01, 2008 10:32 am

JoeNotCharles wrote:Perhaps the civilian area of the docks was built for traders, but has fallen into disuse because they took their business to Trader's Row instead. This would be a major failure of city policy (tariffs set too high or some other policy that makes the city docks unattractive combined with not being willing to send the army out to break up Trader's Row for some reason). That could mean the non-military docks in the city are becoming rundown due to lack of use and upkeep - could be a major problem if pirate attacks or war makes Trader's Row suddenly more dangerous. All those merchants suddenly saying, "Wait, maybe the security of trading inside the bay IS worth paying for!" would have to fight for a place at the docks.
JoeNotCharles - thanks for your suggestions on this. Interesting idea, that could spark off an interesting adventure/mini-campaign.
Jakob_Pawlowicz wrote:Could it be that the Traders Corridor is the stopping place for the trafic (river barges) coming down river from Kelvin ect. while the Mirror Bay is build for Overseas trade ?
That the two harbor areas having been built for different kinds of ships/bargers

Jakob - good thought, but the texts seem to suggest that Traders' Corridor caters for overseas trade.
Hugin wrote:That's a very good point; Mirror Bay is a 'deep harbour' while Traders Corridor has considerably more shallow water along the river and near islands. The docks south of the sea gates would more likely be of deeper water and perhaps are used more for restocking, repairs, crew changes, and other mainly non-trading activities.
Hugin - Good point about possible depth issues. I suppose larger vessels could anchor in deep water and their cargos ferried to the Traders' Corridor piers. The Minrothad Guilds Gazetteer (GAZ9) discusses this aspect when it describes port activities.

I've now found the text in the K:KoA box set which describes The Docks -
The Docks district skirts the edge of Mirror Bay and consists of the wharves and a smattering of warehouses on the banks. Ships sailing further up river into Karameikos pass beneath the twin Sea Gates into Mirror Bay

For the Sea Gates themselves, K:KoA has this description -
The water gates guarding Mirror Bay are unusual , as they are more commonly used in true seaports rather than on rivers. They are constructed of steel-bound oak and backed with portcullises of treated iron.

And K:KoA reiterates the GAZ1 description of Traders' Corridor -
One strip of land along the shore is not protected by the city's old tide wall. The major shipping and shipbuilding businesses are located in this Traders' Corridor, as well as several fish markets and numerous piers, warehouses, and merchant-related businesses. Karameikans come here to book passage, send international messages, and send and receive cargo to and from all over the world.

Having re-read the K:KoA passage above where it says "Karameikans come here (i.e. Traders' Corridor) to book passage,...", I'm wondering if the situation is that if you were a Karameikan from outside of Specularum/Mirros (say Threshold or Vorloi, or wherever), if you wanted to send cargo abroad by ship and went to the Mirror Bay docks you'd pay an extra tax/levy for bringing the goods into the city and then whatever port charges at the Mirror Bay Docks. However, if instead you travelled from Threshold with your cargo and went directly to the Traders' Corridor without entering the city (do not pass GO - do not collect £200 - oops sorry, wriong game ;) ), then you do not pay the extra city tax/levy but just ther port charges in theTraders' Corridor.
I would imagine some goods from ships arriving are destined for businesses within the city and they would be unloaded in Mirror Bay. The city is large and has many marklets, not to mention the Foreign Quarter with traders and merchants fromother parts of Mystara. The city's population was approx 50,000 in AC985 and had risen to about 70,000 by AC1011.

So, I think my interpretation of the Docks/Traders Corridor situation is that:

Trade into and out of the city uses the Mirror Bay docks (and there's plenty of business within the cityto maintain the viability); additionally, larger vessels unable to dock in Traders' Corridor and nor wanting to pay extra charges for ferrying cargo will also use Mirror Bay

Trade to and from other parts of Karameikos will use the Traders' Corridor, avoiding the need to pay any tax/levy into/out of the city walls. Larger ships may anchor in the river's deeper waters and ferry their goods ashore, but this will incur extra cost.

Thank you everyone who has commented on this, it's really appreciated and demonstrates what a great bunch of people there are who still enjoy the Mystara setting.

No doubt I may have more questions on the city of Specularum/Mirros (you may have guessed that I'm not entirely smitten by the post-WotI name change) in the future. I'm sure there'll be plenty of feedback.
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Re: Specularum/Mirros

Post by Gecko » Tue Jul 01, 2008 12:32 pm

The map show's the Trader's corridor in a side channel between the shore and some small islands, with the main river channel beyond those islands. That reminds me of how at the entrance to Pearl Harbour on Oahu, HI there is a "side channel" so to speak leading towards a much smaller harbour at Hickham, while the main channel goes on up into Pearl Harbour proper. It all looks like one stretch of open water but inbetween the water was very shallow (only ankle to waist deep in large places and was frequented by wading fishermen in calm conditions). I remeber one time for some reason the wind was coming out of the north (not normal there) and we were having to tack back and forth up the harbour entrance and we strayed just a few inches too far east (towards the Hickham side) such that right when we turned back towards the North-West (after having been on a North-East tack), the keel slammed into the side wall of the dredged channel when it swung out underneath us :oops: .

Don't know if that helps at all, just something that popped into my mind...

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Re: Specularum/Mirros

Post by AllanP » Tue Jul 01, 2008 11:44 pm

Gecko wrote:The map show's the Trader's corridor in a side channel between the shore and some small islands, with the main river channel beyond those islands. That reminds me of how at the entrance to Pearl Harbour on Oahu, HI there is a "side channel" so to speak leading towards a much smaller harbour at Hickham, while the main channel goes on up into Pearl Harbour proper. It all looks like one stretch of open water but inbetween the water was very shallow (only ankle to waist deep in large places and was frequented by wading fishermen in calm conditions). I remeber one time for some reason the wind was coming out of the north (not normal there) and we were having to tack back and forth up the harbour entrance and we strayed just a few inches too far east (towards the Hickham side) such that right when we turned back towards the North-West (after having been on a North-East tack), the keel slammed into the side wall of the dredged channel when it swung out underneath us :oops: .

Don't know if that helps at all, just something that popped into my mind...
Thanks for this Gecko - it's always good to have a Real World example to relate to.
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Re: Specularum/Mirros

Post by AllanP » Wed Jul 02, 2008 9:55 am

In case anyone's interested, I'd recommend these references for more information on Ports and sea trade:

GAZ9 - The Minrothad Guilds Gazetteer
Port Capacities by Bruce Heard at VoP
Bruce's summplementary list to the above - Port Capacities by Nation
Port Taxes by Bruce Heard at VoP
Cities & Ports: Imports & Exports by John Hare at VoP

If anyone knows of other relevant articles, I'd be interested in hearingof them.
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Re: Specularum/Mirros

Post by Big Mac » Sat Jul 05, 2008 10:04 pm

AllanP wrote:Hi madog -

Yes, you're right about the double set of sea gates that act as defenses across the entrance to Mirror Bay.

Of course, this would also affect the Karameikan Navy whose base is in Mirror Bay.
Have you considered that the Karameikan Navy may be protected by those gates because the government may be paranoid that an enemy nation will use a fireship to destroy their fleet. They might also be worried an invasion fleet could use their own harbor to bypass the city walls.

I don't know enough about Karameikan, so this is a blind guess. But if the government was willing to pay the cost of these gates they may only wish to open them for captians that the city trusts. Maybe the external docks at Traders Corridor were built after the gates were finished, so that tradeships could be pushed out of the city walls. Maybe a ship is only allowed to enter the city if the city is the ship's homeport.
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Re: Specularum/Mirros

Post by AllanP » Sun Jul 06, 2008 1:51 pm

Big Mac wrote:Have you considered that the Karameikan Navy may be protected by those gates because the government may be paranoid that an enemy nation will use a fireship to destroy their fleet. They might also be worried an invasion fleet could use their own harbor to bypass the city walls.

I don't know enough about Karameikan, so this is a blind guess. But if the government was willing to pay the cost of these gates they may only wish to open them for captians that the city trusts. Maybe the external docks at Traders Corridor were built after the gates were finished, so that tradeships could be pushed out of the city walls. Maybe a ship is only allowed to enter the city if the city is the ship's homeport.
Thanks for those thoughts, Big Mac.

I guess the question is - are the gates usually open (i.e. only closed in time of threat) or usually closed? If usyally closed , then there's problem quite a lot of effort expended in opening them to allow ships in and out of the harbour - there seems to be plenty of dock space and if we accept the representations of ships, etc on the map, a fair bit of traffic.

While the K:KoA box set does give a brief description of the gates, it doesn't really explain how they operate. (see my earlier comments in previous post on this above). As Hugin noted above, it's likely that Mirror Bay is a 'deep' harbour, while the riverside docks of Traders' Corridor are relatively shallow and this would not permit larger (ocean-going?) vessels docking there...

I still favour the approach I outlined above -
that commercial trade ships do use Mirror Bay if they are loading/unloading with merchants based inthe city; Traders' Corridor is a base to load/unload cargo frommother parts of Karameikos that are not being handled by merchants in the city (thus obviating the trader's need to pay a "gate tax" to bring the goods into/out of the city in addition to Mirror Bay port charges. And some vessels may only be able to dock in Mirror Bay and not Traders' Corridor.
I think in peacetime, the sea gates are usually open, but in time of war (like I guess in "Wrath of the Immortals", the gates would usually be closed. K:Koa notes that the sea gates "...were installed after a failed assault by river pirates who ruined the earlier fates, and have not been challenged since their installation"

There's a River Fort in the middle of the river (not shown in the map extract in my opening post) opposite the gates. This isn't described in GAZ1, but K:oA has this to say:
"The River Fort also serves to deter attacks upon the gates. A secure island under the control of the Karameikan Navy, it has a low light tower, similar to the Hightower.It has been said that, prior to the establishment of the Karameikan School of Magecraft in Krakatos, the fort was the site of magical experimentation. Now griffons owned by younger members of the Order of the Griffon are stabled here."

Again, thanks for the thoughts.
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Re: Specularum/Mirros

Post by JoeNotCharles » Tue Jul 08, 2008 8:28 pm

AllanP wrote: I guess the question is - are the gates usually open (i.e. only closed in time of threat) or usually closed? If usyally closed , then there's problem quite a lot of effort expended in opening them to allow ships in and out of the harbour - there seems to be plenty of dock space and if we accept the representations of ships, etc on the map, a fair bit of traffic.
Maybe there was a big, well-publicized fire ship attack which almost got through, and the gates are now kept closed at much expense for security reasons. It would fit well with some of the stupid things done in the name of security in the real world...

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Re: Specularum/Mirros

Post by AllanP » Wed Jul 09, 2008 11:03 am

JoeNotCharles wrote:
AllanP wrote: I guess the question is - are the gates usually open (i.e. only closed in time of threat) or usually closed? If usyally closed , then there's problem quite a lot of effort expended in opening them to allow ships in and out of the harbour - there seems to be plenty of dock space and if we accept the representations of ships, etc on the map, a fair bit of traffic.
Maybe there was a big, well-publicized fire ship attack which almost got through, and the gates are now kept closed at much expense for security reasons. It would fit well with some of the stupid things done in the name of security in the real world...
Let's hope Mystarans don't get embroiled in the sort of stupid ideas that RW governments do! :D

I've been pondering these sea gates a bit more...

There's an inner and an outer set of gates - so, what if when one set is open, the other is closed? A bit like a set of lock gates on a river but without the changing level of water...?
A vessel (or vessels) arrives in the river...
If the outer gate is open (and the inner gate is closed), the vessel sails into area between the gates, the vessel's status is assessed, the outer gate closed and then the inner gate is opened for the vessel to sail into Mirror Bay
If the outer gate is open (and the inner gate is closed), an initial assessment is done by the River Fort guards (via telescope, etc) who then contact the sea gate guards who close the inner gate and then open the outer gate...

Perhaps there's a whole underground mechanism which links the gate topgether so that they can't both be open at the same time? I imagine the gates go all the way down to the harbour bottom (to prevent underwater incursion) and reach to the connecting bridge between each pair of gates.
But even if the gates went down to the harbour bottom, what stops underwater "commandos" slipping into the between-gates area as a ship is allowed in? :? What sort of underwater defences might there be between the two sets of gates? :twisted:

Duke Stefan must have invested a lot in these gates. Maybe he advertises the harbour as "Mirror Bay - the safest harbour between Thyatis and..." to get traders to use it ;)
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Re: Specularum/Mirros

Post by yellowdingo » Sun Feb 08, 2009 2:29 pm

Jakob_Pawlowicz wrote:Could it be that the Traders Corridor is the stopping place for the trafic (river barges) coming down river from Kelvin ect. while the Mirror Bay is build for Overseas trade ?
That the two harbor areas having been built for different kinds of ships/bargers :?: :roll:
More than likely but its Proximity to the RADU controlled sector of the City should tell you who controls the river trade and the TRADER'S CORRIDOR. More than likely the Radu (who control the Merchant Guild) had interests outside the old City (back when Duke Stephan Showed up the Guild controlled town of Vorloi - renamed Specularum - then Mirros had a Population of five thousand). Back then the Radu Quarter sat outside the Walls.

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Re: Specularum/Mirros

Post by Gawain_VIII » Sun Feb 08, 2009 7:23 pm

yellowdingo wrote:back when Duke Stephan Showed up the Guild controlled town of Vorloi - renamed Specularum - then Mirros
Specularum/Mirros used to be the port-town of Marilenev (seperate from but related to Marilenev Village), not Vorloi--which is still called "Vorloi" just to the SE of Specularum.

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Re: Specularum/Mirros

Post by yellowdingo » Sun Feb 08, 2009 9:52 pm

OOps! yes I meant:

Village of Marilenev-------->Specularum--------------->Mirros
As Opposed to Port Marilenev on the Coast, or Castle Marilenev.

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AllanP
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Re: Specularum/Mirros

Post by AllanP » Mon Feb 09, 2009 5:24 pm

yellowdingo wrote:More than likely but its Proximity to the RADU controlled sector of the City should tell you who controls the river trade and the TRADER'S CORRIDOR. More than likely the Radu (who control the Merchant Guild) had interests outside the old City (back when Duke Stephan Showed up the Guild controlled town of Vorloi - renamed Specularum - then Mirros had a Population of five thousand). Back then the Radu Quarter sat outside the Walls.
Hi yellowdingo -
Thanks for your interest in the Specularum posts which you have bumped up the board. This will encourage me to resume mapping the city districts again - I need to get on with the Foreign Quarter!!!

Just a comment on your response aboe - with your statement "Back then the Radu Quarter sat outside the Walls." seems to be indicating that this was porior to Duke Stefan's arrival. However if by the "Radu Quarter" you mean the Stronghold District, this doesn''t jibe with other information; notably in K:KoA where the description of the Stronghold District (p.44) reads:
"Founded on one of the original sites of civilization at Mirros, the Stronghold District dates back to a time when Mirros was divided into smaller walled encampments. The Stronghold District was and is controlled by the Radu family."

I think previous discussio here on the Piazza has agreed that by the time of Stefan's arrival those original individual encampments had been surrounded by a wall linking any walls of the earlier settlements, including the Stronghold District. Thus the "Radu Quarter" was not "outside the walls". (If anything, the Stronghold District's walls may have served as a blueproint for the original city enclosure...?) Stefan's new outer wall enclosed the Foreign Quarter, the Duke''s Park and the extended South End District.

I don't think there's an indication of when the individual encampments grew to the point when the inner wall was constructed (which tied the Stronghold District and the Church District walls together (but agathokles may well have an idea ;-) )

Again thanks for re-kindling interest in Specularum,

regards
AllanP
"...a wanderer on the streets of Specularum"
My Specularum website includes Specularum City maps and FC1 Work In Progress

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Re: Specularum/Mirros

Post by agathokles » Mon Feb 09, 2009 9:53 pm

AllanP wrote: I don't think there's an indication of when the individual encampments grew to the point when the inner wall was constructed (which tied the Stronghold District and the Church District walls together (but agathokles may well have an idea ;-) )
Yes, I did set a date in my Timeline:

AC 681 The town council of Marilenev finances the construction of the city walls.

However, it is not based on canonical data, just my assumption based on the rest of the timeline.

GP

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